Truck manufacturing faces stiff headwinds

COLUMBUS, Ind. — The commercial vehicle market has been showing signs of recovery, but manufacturers still have a long way to go to return to normal replacement level demand, according to ACT Research.

In its latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, ACT expects Class 8 production during each quarter of 2010 to grow over 20 percent on a year-over-year basis.

The researchers also say production will not reach replacement level rates until early 2011.

Meanwhile, medium-duty truck production should see significant year-over-year growth starting in the second quarter of 2010.

"While the economy emerged from recession in the third quarter, we expect a slow recovery rather than a break-out," said Kenny Vieth, partner and senior analyst with ACT Research. "With a slow recovery in demand, excess capacity in for-hire trucking sectors is not expected to be eliminated until the second half of 2010, putting continued pressure on transportation prices and profits. When profitability does return to trucking, there will be significant pent up demand to replace older than normal fleets."