2002 diesel fuel prices to remain stable through Q3: study

OSHAWA, Ont. (Nov. 26, 2001) — After two years of exorbitant fuel prices, truckers can look forward to some much-needed relief for at least most of 2002, according to a new report published by En-Pro International, an Oshawa, Ont.-based energy consulting firm.

With global demand for crude down because of the slowing economy, and OPEC pledging not to reduce exports, prices for the rest of this year and for at least the first half of 2002 should average $38 per barrel (assuming the Canadian dollar doesn’t weaken much further), the report predicted.

This is about $6 per barrel less than the average price from October 2000 to September 2001.

One key factor keeping prices low: middle distillate inventory levels in the Northeast U.S. Last year, inventories were extremely low, leading to high prices. This year, middle distillates are 4.7% higher, another sign of lower prices in the near future, the report said.

However, it is expected the economy will begin to recover in the third quarter of next year, and this may cause crude and refined product prices to rise once again.

The end result is diesel fuel prices will be stable in 2002. Prices in January and February would average about $.020 per litre higher than current levels, equalizing for the next two months, and falling about $.015 per litre between May and September. Depending on the length of the recession, the report says prices should climb after that, with a total increase of $.035 per litre higher between September and December 2002.