Fall off at diesel pumps signals freight softening

LOS ANGELES — Alarm bells are ringing for holiday season retailers after the latest Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index showed a third consecutive monthly decline.

The index, which tracks diesel fuel purchases as an economic measure, fell 0.6 percent in October, following similar declines in the previous two months.

Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, suggests this may be a prelude to a less than robust holiday retail season.

"The October PCI sounds an alarm about growth in the fourth quarter, and our latest PCI data indicates retailer wariness about future sales prospects," he said.

Year-over-year, though, the October 2010 PCI is 4.1 percent higher than the same month in 2009, meaning the holiday shipping season is still much better than last year.

However, increases have continued to fall since May’.

"We have had a recovery ‘time out,’" suggested Leamer, adding that even though the economy has slowed, a double-dip recession is not in the cards.