Freight outlook at 25-year low: Analyst

NASHVILLE, Ind. — North America’s freight market is looking to be in as bad as shape as it was during the critical 1982 recession, says industry forecaster FTR Associates.

The firm released its mid-month North American Commercial Truck and Trailer Outlook flash report this week. The report, which highlights key indicators of an economic bottom, states that activity has worsened in the first quarter of 2009 from the deep declines already registered in last year’s fourth quarter.

Trucking is experiencing the "worst market in a generation," says FTR president Eric Starks.

FTR expects year-over-year tonnage freight drops to bottom at -10.3 percent in the second quarter before beginning a slow rise to "a still stressful" -6.6 percent to end the year.

"For truckers this promises steadily increasing pressure on rates into the summer months. When coupled with tightened availability of credit these freight numbers translate into very low truck production numbers," he says.

January saw the lowest number new truck and trailer orders in over two decades. But those orders could end up being the highest totals of 2009, adds Starks.