Hogtown exodus to gridlock GTA by 2030: Report

TORONTO — Twenty-five years from now, an additional 100,000 vehicles will flood the City of Toronto’s road network as population swells and government-funded infrastructure continues to lag.

That’s according to a report commissioned by the Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario.

Their paper, Transportation Challenges in the Greater Toronto Area, also says that by 2031, based on the province’s growth policy, the GTA will see another 146,000 peak morning commuters in Markham, 80,000 in Vaughan, and 154,000 in Brampton.

Toronto’s official plan anticipates little or no new
road construction in the near future, a new report says

“With these added volumes, roads will be severely congested,” states the report, which recommends immediate government action. “With more than 8 million people expected to be living in the GTA in 25 years, the municipal governments do not have the financial capacity to meet the demand. Nor is there a comprehensive plan in place to address the issues.”

The study is based on the population density forecasts contained in the province’s Places To Grow policy — forecasts that assume people will choose high-density communities and public transit over suburban homes and automobiles, changing their lifestyles in ways that do not reflect past behavior.

Because Toronto’s official plan anticipates little or no new road construction, and focuses almost entirely on transit, the city simply will not be able to meet its transportation needs.

“Increasingly, companies will be forced to leave the downtown and move to the 905 area to be closer to their workers,” said Richard Soberman, the lead author of the report. “Toronto can probably kiss its aspirations for employment growth goodbye.”

Such an exodus would then put additional pressure on the transportation systems of York, Mississauga, and other areas of the GTA.

“Loblaws’ decision to relocate to Mississauga Road and 407 in Brampton is indicative of changing attitudes,” notes the report.

Since 1992, the population of the GTA has increased by about 33 percent. During the same period, provincial spending on transportation has declined by about 24 percent.

“Acceptance of these main messages may be a lot to expect. But taxpayers in the GTA spend a lot of money on transportation. They should expect a lot in return,” concludes the report.