Logistics expert: DDR threat to economy very real

TORONTO — Jerry Seinfeld doesn’t do it, but George Costanza does.

What’s more, there’s a chance the global economy could follow in Costanza’s shoes and nobody’s happy about it.

We’re talking about double-dipping. That would be, in this case, the dreaded double-dip recession or DDR for short.

The economy is facing a 40 percent chance of a re-entering recession, the chief economist of Economic Development Canada (EDC) told a group of supply-chain experts today.

In a speech he described as “doom and gloomy,” EDC economist Peter Hall said that after a brief period of euphoria, the economy has slowed and is probably going to take between 12 and 15 months for the economy to recover, adding, “that’s a very long time to have to wait for a restoration of normalcy.”

The short “euphoric” recover of early 2010 came after one of the deepest recessions of the past 100 years.

“Now,” he said, “even central bankers, the most conservative people out there, are using the word ‘unusual’ to describe this economy.”

Hunt said a number of factors combine to shape economic growth — or lack of same. They include continuing depressed price of oil and other commodities, low interest rates, the sputtering along of the U.S and other foreign economies.

Consumer confidence in the U.S. is also off.

The government stimulus programs did buoy the economy but only temporarily.

The end result us unprecedented government debt; for example, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is nearing 240. http://tinyurl.com/r2vg5j.

It’s a situation Hall describes as very alarming and, he said, "nobody’s talking about it."

Hall’s comments are in contrast to the mood in the U.S., where many economists acknowledge the painfully slow growth, but predict a double-dip should hold off.