The bulls have left the building: Freight analyst

NEW YORK — There are fewer optimists left who believe class 8 sales will pick up significantly anytime soon, notes the transportation research arm of Wall Street market analysts Bear Stearns.

In a conference call titled “Turn Signals: What’s the Outlook for Commercial Vehicle Demand in 08-09?” experts suggest the current downturn is attributed to the ongoing freight recession.

Looking forward, the mood in the industry remains overly cautious.

There’s a series of other regulations beyond emission
rules that’s expected to drive up the price of a new truck.

Bear Stearns admits it’s had to tone down its own expectations that another “pre-buy” cycle in advance of the 2010 engine emissions regulations would significantly boost sales over the next two years. That likely isn’t the case, as fleets would rather trim capacity than significantly invest in ’08 or ’09 trucks.

However, the firm says there are some other dynamics here. “Freight’s already been bad for a year or more, so our sense is that we are incrementally closer a rebound,” it states.

Furthermore, lowered forecasts imply two years of production at or below replacement demand in both ’07 and ’08. “While this did occur during the ’01-’03 downturn, bad freight fundamentals at the time were further exacerbated by an implosion in used truck prices.”

Meanwhile, normal trade cycles will likely put upward pressure on replacement demand for the next 3 years. The only thing that seems certain about 2010, says Bear Stearns, is that prices are going up.

Beyond emission regulations, there will be other factors at play over the next few years, including NHTSA braking regulations; on-board diagnostics; electronic on-board recorders; and electronic stability control. “It’s likely that these regulations will also drive higher purchase and/or operating costs, which is a dynamic the industry has not previously dealt with at the same time as an emissions change.”