Truck analysts say climb back from recession will be slow

NASHVILLE, Ind. — While the general consensus among Bay and Wall Street types is that the general freight recession is over, recovery won’t be easy or smooth.

According to speakers at the recent FTR Associates’ Freight Transportation conference in Indianapolis, unlike previous recessions, subdued consumer spending will slow the pace of recovery this time, meaning growth in freight volumes will be slow and gradual.

Freight transport, therefore, will continue to be a buyer’s market for the near term, as depressed freight levels and substantial excess capacity will continue to be the rule.

Equilibrium for carriers — the U.S. at least — may not be reached until 2011 unless there is a more rapid recovery than currently expected, says FTR.

Meanwhile, don’t expect a significant bump in equipment purchases or fleet acquisitions, says Richard Mikes, a managing partner at Transport Capital Partners, which consults with transportation companies on mergers and acquisitions and other areas. 

"Carriers are sensing an improving environment, with fewer interested in selling," he said "At the same time, there appears to be a slight shift to considering equipment acquisitions for replacement but adding only if certain criteria are met."

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According to a recent survey by the firm, 38 percent of carriers expressed interest in buying other carriers in the next 18 months, while over 70 percent expect credit availability to stay the same or increase over the next two years.

The survey also found that fewer carriers are interested in selling in the next six months. "Many carriers are asking themselves, ‘Why sell now, when a better time may be in a year when credit and volume conditions and pricing are improving?’" said Lana Batts, a managing partner at TCP.

The current month’s uptick in Class 8 sales is a confirmation of respondents general optimism for the future, Mikes said. "However, responses to a question about adding capacity shows some caution is in the air, primarily until rates and volume improve."

Sixteen percent responded that they had no plans to add capacity in the foreseeable future, while another 25 percent will not add capacity until the economy improves.

"Clearly carriers believe they will make more money by raising rates than by adding capacity," Batts said.