Truck freight still strong over next decade: ATA forecast

WASHINGTON — Despite depressed highway freight volumes in the last couple years, the American Trucking Associations predicts that trucking will increase its share of the freight pool and continue to dominate domestic US freight movement into the next decade.

In a newly released 10-year outlook — titled “U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to… 2018” — the ATA reports that there will be some growth for all modes — but an even greater role for trucking.

“We’re an important part of the quality of life in (the U.S.),” said ATA President and CEO Bill Graves. “The United States achieved economic greatness with the help of a state-of-the-art transportation system. And trucks will continue to lead the freight landscape.”

Trucks remain the largest freight movers, but other modes,
especially intermodal, are expected to grow extensively.

The forecast projects trucking’s total tonnage share to rise to 69.7 percent in 2012 and to 70 percent by 2018 from 69 percent in 2006. Above-average growth in key truck commodities and the inherent flexibility and on-time delivery associated with trucking is driving industry growth.

Although trucks will remain the largest mode of freight transport, other transport modes also are expected to carry more freight as overall tonnage in the United States increases.

The forecast, produced for ATA by Global Insight, projects robust growth in rail intermodal and air freight. These two modes represent the fastest-growing segments during the forecast period, although neither mode will have more than 2 percent of the total tonnage market by 2018.

Total rail tonnage (including carloads and intermodal units) will edge up to 14.7 percent of domestic tonnage in 2018 from 14.6 percent in 2006. Water passage tonnage, which accounted for 6.5 percent of the domestic transport market in 2006, is expected to expand by 1.6 percent a year, on average, over the next six years and 1.5 percent a year thereafter through 2018.

In addition to key findings and projections for all freight transport modes, the forecast provides extensive analysis of the energy sector, including projections for crude oil prices. The trucking industry estimates that it will spend more than $110 billion for diesel fuel in 2007.

The entire study can be purchased by calling (800) 282-5463 or through ATA’s MarketPlace at www.truckline.com/store.