Truck Tonnage Holds, Inventory Gains to Hurt Trucking: ATA

ARLINGTON, VA — The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index held steady in July after June’s 1.1 percent increase.

Compared to July 2011, the index was 4.1 percent higher, marking the largest year-over-year gain since February 2012, ATA noted. Year-to-date, tonnage was up 3.7 percent.

The not seasonally adjusted index was 2.8 percent lower than the previous month.

“July’s reading reflects an economy that has lost some steam, but hasn’t stalled,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “Certainly there has been some better economic news recently, but I continue to believe we will see some deceleration in tonnage during the second half of the year, if for nothing else but very tough comparisons on a robust August through December period in 2011.”

New factory orders will constrain manufacturing output, Costello believes, and that will impact truck freight volumes. Costello said that he is also concerned about the recent jump in the total business inventory-to-sales ratio. “Unintended gains in inventories will hit trucking negatively as the supply chain works off stocks.”

Costello kept his tonnage outlook for 2012 to the 3 percent to 3.5 percent range.