Trucking Outlook Muddled, says ATA

GRAPEVINE, TX. — The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) chief economist repeated the message he’s been broadcasting for weeks at the ATA conference today.

"Right now, freight demand is moving sideways, rather than falling off a cliff like it did in 2008," Costello said. "That indicates to me that we might just skirt by another recession."

Overall, however, Costello said the outlook for the trucking industry is muddled, with softening demand and rising costs on one hand, and capacity looking to remain tight on the other.

"No one is doing great," he said, "but it feels like larger companies and shippers are outperforming small businesses right now." This, Costello explained, is likely due to relationships with larger shippers.

Cost pressures on fleets were significant, he admitted, noting inflation rates on fuel, equipment, and driver wages are exceeding inflation rate for the broader economy.

But, Costello added, there’s "a significant amount of pent-up demand for new trucks to renew aging fleets," and he expects equipment manufacturers to continue to see solid sales numbers.

Fleets should continue to see healthy revenue per mile as capacity stays tight, Costello said.

"There has been some growth in capacity, but supply and demand remain close to equilibrium," he said. "However, fleets did a good job ‘right-sizing’ during the recession, so capacity should remain tight – and continue to tighten as the driver shortage worsens."